Update from Israel

January 29, 2026

October 7 War, Day 843, 0 hostages remain in captivity 

 Ran Gvili’s body was returned to Israel for burial, marking the first time since 2014 (4,208 days) that no Israeli is being held hostage in Gaza.

Ran Gvili

• On Monday, Israel announced that the remains of Staff Sgt. Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage still in Gaza, had been recovered and returned to Israel for burial, after being held for 843 days.
• In an official statement delivered shortly after the news of Gvili was released, President Isaac Herzog called it a national exhale: “An entire nation is breathing an enormous sigh of relief tonight. All of our hearts are with Ran Gvili’s family.”
• For many Israelis, the recovery marked the closing chapter of Israel’s longest war that began in October 2023. One reporter announced, “The October 7 War has finally ended.”
• Israeli news was filled with images of leaders removing the yellow hostage pins from their lapels, giant hostage posters coming down, and the removal of symbolic empty yellow chairs that many businesses and public institutions have left out for more than two years. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said, as he was removing the hostage pin he had worn, “Today, I remove it, and I will get rid of it… and I will pray that never in the history of the nation of Israel will anyone ever wear a yellow ribbon on their clothing again.”
• The giant clock in Hostage Square that counted the days, hours and minutes that the hostages had been held, was finally stopped at 843 days, 12 hours, 5 minutes and 59 seconds.
• Listen here to the BBC’s interview with an Israeli journalist about the nation’s mood.
• Gvili was a 24-year-old police officer on leave, who voluntarily went to the Gaza Envelope area on Oct. 7, 2023 to help fight the invading terrorists. Gvili helped repel dozens of attackers before being killed.  His body was captured by Hamas and taken into Gaza that day.
• The recovery of his body was achieved through “Brave Heart,” a large-scale IDF operation, involving hundreds of troops that took place at a cemetery in northern Gaza, where intelligence suggested Gvili’s body was located. Forces conducted an intensive search that involved 20 military dentists to identify his remains through dental records.  Listen to the army communications message announcing the confirmation that Gvili’s body had been found and identified.
• In video footage, soldiers involved in the rescue effort were seen embracing, crying and singing the national anthem when the recovery was confirmed.
• From the Knesset podium the same day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “We have returned Ran Gvili, of blessed memory, a hero of Israel. There are no more hostages in Gaza…. He was the first one to enter, and the last to leave.”
• Gvili’s funeral took place yesterday, in Meitar, his hometown, with national leaders in attendance.  In his eulogy, President Isaac Herzog framed the burial as both sacred closure and national reckoning, saying: “At this moment, I ask… for your forgiveness. Forgiveness that we were not there for him… [and] you were forced to wait for his return for so many long, agonizing days.”
• Talik Gvili, Ran’s mother, told journalists: “The pride is so much stronger than the sadness….We have closure.”
• After Gvili’s remains were returned, the government announced that the Rafah crossing with Egypt would reopen, ending Israel’s earlier condition that the crossing remain closed until the last hostage was brought home. The Prime Minister’s Office confirmed the reopening, stating that Rafah would be opened in a limited capacity for pedestrian passage only.

Iran

• US. and Israeli preparations for a potential strike on Iran continue, including visible military and diplomatic coordination between the two allies. The commander of US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, visited Israel earlier in the week for meetings with senior Israeli defense officials.
• Earlier this week, commenting on the military build-up, President Trump said, “By the way, there’s another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now. So, we’ll see.”
• Israeli and Saudi defense and intelligence officials are in Washington this week for high‑level talks with the Trump administration on Iran. IDF Intelligence Directorate chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder has been meeting with senior officials at the Pentagon, CIA, and White House to share intelligence on potential Iranian targets, while Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman is holding meetings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Envoy Steve Witkoff “aimed at preventing a wider regional war.” Saudi Arabia has made clear it will not allow its territory or airspace to be used in any strike on Iran.
• The US has significantly reinforced its regional military posture with the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group into CENTCOM’s area of responsibility, accompanied by multiple destroyers and combat aircraft.
• Dozens of cargo jets have been flying in and out of the region, including to Israel, and Israeli reporters say the transports are likely delivering missile-defense systems to prepare for an Iranian response.
• U.S. officials have described the deployment as expanding American options and signaling readiness should President Trump decide to authorize military action against Iran.
• Some in Israel say that a US strike could mirror Washington’s earlier approach in Venezuela: targeting the regime’s leadership rather than pursuing gradual pressure.
• Reports suggest Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been moved into a bunker, while day‑to‑day authority has reportedly shifted to his son, an arrangement widely seen as unstable and lacking legitimacy in a system designed to reject dynastic succession.
• Israeli Iran specialists say that several scenarios are being weighed. One is that Khamenei is removed, but the regime largely survives with a new clerical figurehead.  Another is the decapitation of both clerical and IRGC leadership in a way that triggers mass protests and a democratic transition. However, both are considered improbable.  More likely is that an attack strips away clerical rule but leaves the IRGC intact, allowing it to reconstitute power as a nationalist military dictatorship, possibly using symbolic figures like the crown prince while retaining real control.
• Under this logic, Washington may be aiming not for a democratic transformation but for a weaker, more compliant Iranian regime that is shorn of its nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions and less capable of projecting regional power.
• Even so, the argument suggests that the collapse or mutation of the Islamic Republic does not guarantee a “better future for Iran,” and the decisive factor will be how power is consolidated—or contested—in the critical days immediately following any strike.
• Israel’s Home Front Command has not issued any new directives or ordered any additional or special precautions for the country’s citizens. Ben Gurion Airport remains open and fully operational, as does the Jewish State’s airspace.

Other News

• New reporting based on US State Department findings shows that the Palestinian Authority continued large‑scale payments to terrorists and their families despite public pledges to end the so‑called “pay‑for‑slay” program. According to the assessment, the PA transferred at least $214 million in 2025 after funneling about $144 million in 2024, shifting payments to a rebranded “welfare” mechanism intended to obscure their purpose from international donors. These payments continued for months after PA President Mahmoud Abbas announced the program’s cancellation.
• A senior Hamas official has publicly rejected claims that the group agreed to disarm, pushing back against statements by Israel and the United States that Hamas must give up its weapons as part of ending the war in Gaza. In an interview, Mousa Abu Marzouk said Hamas had never discussed, negotiated, or accepted any formula for surrendering or destroying its weapons, arguing that if two years of fighting failed to disarm the group, negotiations were unlikely to do so. Abu Marzouk also stressed that Hamas remains firmly in control of Gaza, asserting that the movement has restored order and will continue to “provide security.”
• The Israeli government has approved a $2 billion Reservists Assistance and Appreciation Plan, a wide‑ranging package designed to recognize the enormous burden carried by IDF reservists after more than two years of sustained combat. The plan prioritizes combat reservists through a tiered compensation model and includes grants, expanded tuition coverage, mental health support for soldiers and their families, and additional welfare benefits, while also reducing the average daily number of reservists on active duty to ease long‑term strain on families and the economy.
• The Israeli military has, for the first time, formally assessed Gaza war fatalities at roughly 70,000, while disputing international claims that widespread starvation caused civilian deaths. According to the IDF, about 25,000 of those killed were Hamas operatives, and many civilian deaths resulted from factors such as misfired Hamas rockets or internal executions carried out by the terror group. The military said no healthy individuals died from starvation, emphasizing that Israel facilitated the entry of over 112,000 humanitarian aid trucks, including large quantities of food, medications, tents, and other supplies, throughout the war. At the same time, the IDF is still working on a fuller breakdown of civilian versus combatant casualties.

Further Reading

• The War Is Over
• Conscription of Haredi Yeshiva Students to the IDF and the Emerging Constitutional Crisis
• Remembering Zechariah Haber who fell in the war. An interview with his wife
• Is Washington Undermining Its Own Syria Strategy
• The Next Iran: Turkey
• Israel at a Demographic Crossroads

Update from Israel

January 22, 2026 - October 7 War, Day 832, 1 hostage body remains in captivity. 

 Israel remains on high alert over Iran and Trump launches the Board of Peace

Iran

• Uncertainty and concern remain in Israel as the Islamic regime in Iran seems to have forcefully stopped the anti-government protests.
• With most communication blocked, it is unclear how many protestors have been killed; estimates range from 5,000 (the figure cited by the government itself) to as high as 30,000 with thousands more injured, many seriously.
• Israeli defense capabilities remain on high alert, with concerns that an American attack on Iran could trigger an Iranian missile barrage against Israel. There are also fears that Iran may consider attacking Israel as a way to divert attention from the protestors at home, thus projecting strength and attempting to unite the Iranian population behind the government.
• The intentions of the US also remain unclear. While President Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if the regime continues to kill protestors, no such action has occurred, despite the large-scale crackdown. At the same time, the US is maintaining, and in fact increasing, its military presence in the area, leading to speculation that an American attack may still come. US military preparation has included the assembling of fighter squadrons, refuelling assets, and a redeployed carrier strike group, all in close proximity to Iran.
• Among analysts in Israel, the US delay in attacking Iran has been attributed to a number of factors. Firstly, most of the Gulf states, including the UAE, fear any destabilization in the region, with Qatar seen as the state most opposed to military action. The players in the region appear eager to distance themselves from any US attack, for fear of Iranian retaliation. In addition, Israel reportedly considered the proposed strike to be insufficiently impactful.

Gaza Ceasefire: Stage Two

• US President Donald Trump announced the formation of the Board of Peace in Davos today. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Jewish state will join the Board as a founding country. Most European countries have declined to sign up, while many Muslim nations have agreed, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
• The Board is a component of the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire, which includes a number of newly-created bodies:
• The Board of Peace,  a US-led international governing body created under UN Security Council Resolution 2803 (2025) to oversee Gaza’s post-war ceasefire implementation, reconstruction, security transition, governance, and economic recovery. While President Trump has invited many countries to join the Board of Peace, it is the Executive Board, dominated by senior US officials, that will oversee Gaza.
• The chairman of the Executive Board is President Donald Trump himself, who retains the top authority and strategic decision-making power within the board, with influence over all of the organizations and bodies reporting to it.
  • The Executive Board’s other members are:
  •  Marco Rubio (U.S. Secretary of State)
  •  Steve Witkoff (U.S. special envoy)
  •  Jared Kushner (President Trump’s adviser and peace plan architect)
  •  Sir Tony Blair (former UK prime minister)
  •  Marc Rowan (business leader and chair of UJA Federation New York)
  •  Ajay Banga (World Bank President)
  •  Robert Gabriel (U.S. official)
• These members each oversee key portfolios, including governance capacity, financing, reconstruction, and regional relations.
• The Office of the High Representative for Gaza acts as the on-the-ground executive link between the Board of Peace’s Executive Board and other Gaza bodies under this agreement. The High Representative is Nickolay Mladenov, who is a Bulgarian diplomat and former UN Middle East envoy. His position is akin to the CEO or chief administrator of the Board of Peace.
• The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) is a Palestinian interim governing body tasked with managing day-to-day civil administration and public services in the Strip. It was also established under UNSCR 2803 and operates under supervision of the Board of Peace.
  • The chair of the Committee is Dr. Ali Shaath, a Palestinian “technocrat” and former Palestinian Authority (PA) official.
  • 15 Palestinian technocrats (most of whom have ties to the PA as well as Fatah) are members of the Committee, with each heading key sectors such as economy and trade, health, education, interior and internal security, justice, municipalities and water, and finance and social affairs.
  • Numerous commentators point out that by using former PA figures, Israel is able to claim that its demand to prevent the PA out from governing Gaza has been upheld, while those wanting the PA to be included can also trumpet a victory of sorts.
  • The Committee will administer Gaza’s civil service functions: health, education, utilities, justice, municipal services. It will also coordinate stabilization and early reconstruction efforts and oversee internal security (civil policing) under the transitional framework.
  • NCAG’s decisions are made by its committee members under Shaath’s leadership but their authority is subject to Board of Peace supervision, led by President Trump.
• The Gaza Executive Board is a subsidiary support board intended to “enhance governance and service delivery” in Gaza, during transition. This board is designed to help deliver “effective governance” and provision of services to Gaza, and also act as a bridge between high-level Board of Peace policies and Gaza’s on-the-ground administration. The membership of this board is more controversial, but its role is also more limited. Israel has objected to the presence of representatives from Turkey and Qatar. It includes representatives drawn from international and regional political/diplomatic figures:
  • Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Tony Blair, Marc Rowan (who are also on the Board of Peace)
  • Hakan Fidan (the Turkish foreign minister)
  • Ali Al-Thawadi (Qatar)
  • Hassan Rashad (Egypt)
  • Reem Al-Hashimy (UAE)
  • Sigrid Kaag (UN coordinator)
  • Yakir Gabay (business figure)
  • Nickolay Mladenov (High Representative)
• In addition, the International Stabilization Force has also been UN-mandated, but is not yet final or operational. It will be a multinational peacekeeping and security operation, envisioned to replace Hamas’ control and also to demilitarize Gaza. It will be led byUS Major General Jasper Jeffers and will be subject to the direction of the Board of Peace. Other forces may include Indonesia and Egypt. Turkey would like to be included, but Israel is opposed to their participation. The Force is set to provide overarching security, border control, and protection of civilians and aid operations, as well as to facilitate humanitarian corridors and stability.
• It is also mandated to support demilitarization, including the removal and destruction of militant infrastructure, and to train a vetted local Palestinian police force.
• Israel has reiterated that it will not proceed with Stage Two of the Gaza ceasefire until the body of the last hostage, Ran Gvili, is returned.

Other Significant News

• This week in Jerusalem, an incident at an unlicensed daycare left two haredi infants—three‑month‑old Leah Golovnetsitz and six‑month‑old Aharon Katz—dead. According to authorities, the deaths likely stemmed from severe dehydration in a heated room with poor ventilation. The tragedy has brought new scrutiny to the common use of unregulated childcare. A High Court decision blocked the autopsies of the victims due to widespread protests by haredi community members that shut down major roads in numerous cities. Police are also probing possible neglect and abuse by caregivers. Senior Haredi political figures publicly blamed the state’s conscription efforts and related policy changes for the tragedy. Leaders from ultra-Orthodox parties linked the tragedy to government actions tied to the draft debate, including cuts to subsidies that had supported such child care, which were driven by efforts to enforce conscription.
• Former IDF chief of staff and government minister Gadi Eisenkot has proposed forming a single party with Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, aiming to create a centrist “Zionist Majority” that could win around 40 Knesset seats, which is enough to surpass other factions and challenge Netanyahu in the next elections. The elections must be held by October of this year.   Combining their current polling, the bloc could realistically reach 38–44 seats, with Bennett contributing the most, Eisenkot bridging the center, and Lapid appealing to center-left voters.
  • The alliance would mirror past Israeli “big-tent politics” and aim to project unity early, with leadership to be decided closer to the election based on “electability” and polling, likely putting Bennett at the helm if polls hold.
  • The strategy’s main goal is to increase turnout and break the opposition deadlock, but it carries significant risks; merging parties doesn’t always guarantee better results, especially as ideological differences could alienate parts of each leader’s base.
  • Neither Bennett nor Lapid have publicly responded to the proposal.
• Israeli media has pointed out that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s travel options are limited due to fears of backlash against him over the Gaza war, and even possible arrest, in many places across the globe (with the US as a notable, and critical, exception).
  • In his stead, President Isaac Herzog, considered by many international players to be less controversial, has continued representing Israel, including at this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos.
  • In Davos, Herzog  met with numerous heads of state and government, including the presidents of Azerbaijan, the Swiss Confederation, Finland, Lithuania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Serbia, and Panama, as well as the prime ministers of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Czech Republic, and Sweden.
  • President Herzog also met with senior global business leaders, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and leaders of international organizations, including the secretaries-general of NATO and the OECD, and the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
  • Watch President Herzog’s address in Davos here.
• Israel is strengthening its role in NATO’s defense network, with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems supplying its Windbreaker active protection system (essentially an “Iron Dome for tanks”) to 150 Leopard tanks used by Lithuania, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Croatia. The system intercepts incoming anti-tank missiles before they hit, offering protection without adding heavy armor. Germany, having already ordered Windbreaker systems for 123 tanks, appears to want more, and this latest $390 million deal marks another major contract for Israel’s rapidly growing defense industry. Beyond boosting exports, this integration into NATO systems could deepen Israel–EU relations.
• Israeli authorities have demolished a long-controversial UNRWA facility in east Jerusalem, ending decades of operation that included alleged funding of terrorism and incitement against Israel. The building had also reportedly hosted activities to indoctrinate children and glorify violence. After revelations that some Gazan UNRWA employees were acting as Hamas operatives, the Knesset banned the agency from operating in Israel in January 2025, though the facility continued until police seized it in December over unpaid taxes. The site can now be repurposed for public use.
• The US is building a nuclear power plant in Israel to support AI and data centers, circumventing the Non-Proliferation Treaty by placing the facility on Israeli soil but under American sovereignty, thus legally treating it like a US-based reactor. The plant will power Israel’s data centers, strengthening Washington’s “Pax Silica Alliance,” a trusted network of tech partners including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the UK, and Qatar. Israel’s inclusion reflects its technical expertise and strategic location, but the country’s limited energy resources have long constrained this development. Nuclear power, discussed by Netanyahu and Trump in December, should enable Israel to support large-scale AI development.
• On Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee in Jerusalem to discuss creating a mutual recognition framework for securities registration between Israel and the US. The plan would allow Israeli companies listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange to trade more easily in US markets by reducing regulatory duplication, streamlining reporting, and expanding access to international capital.

Further Reading

• Why Israel is responding to protests in Iran with caution
• Lebanon’s Government’s Ongoing Failure in Confronting Hezbollah
• When Fear Stopped Working in Iran
• Syria Puts a Boot on the Neck of the Kurds
• Iran is boiling, Gaza is entering a new phase, and Syria is re-emerging as a hub for radical Islamist threats: A discussion with Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikl
•  Israel’s First Elections in the Age of AI Will Test the Integrity of Democracy

Update from Israel

January 15, 2026 - October 7 War, Day 832, 1 hostage body remains in captivity. 

 Israel on high alert as tensions in Iran escalate

Iran

• Mass protests in Iran, now in their third week, have continued to escalate into what is now the most serious challenge to the Islamic regime since its founding in 1979.
• The Iranian government has shut down Internet and phone access inside the country, making it difficult to know what is taking place on the ground. The communications freeze is now in its fifth day.
• President Trump has repeatedly warned the Islamic Republic that the US would not stand by idly if the Iranian government killed its own citizens. Estimates of the number of protestors killed by regime forces trying to end the demonstrations and gatherings range from 2,000 to more than 20,000.
• Many reports suggest that the US is now poised to strike Iranian government targets. A significant build-up of US military power is already in the region, with additional resources on the way.
• Iran has threatened to strike back at both US and Israeli interests if the US attacks.
• The Israeli government has said that it is on the highest level of preparedness, but, so far, no special new orders have been given to citizens. Beersheba municipality has opened public shelters as a precaution. Daily life continues as usual, although there is grave concern over what the coming days may bring.
• Yesterday, the Lufthansa group suspended its flights to Israel; so far, all other carriers continue their operations in and out of Israel’s.
• The US Embassy in Jerusalem issued a travel caution for American citizens planning to visit Israel, urging heightened awareness amid “ongoing regional tensions,” although it did not include specific safety directives. The UK’s Foreign Office also warned against all but essential travel to Israel.
• Last night, President Trump said that he understood that the Iranian regime had stopped executing citizens, which was the red line he had drawn for US intervention. Some see this as a ruse by the US, to cause Iran to lower its guard.
• Iran’s military capabilities are no match for Israel and the US. However, given its stockpile of ballistic missiles, Iran has the ability to inflict considerable damage on Israel. In the “12-Day-War” between Iran and Israel last June, Iranian missiles killed 28 civilians, destroyed or damaged dozens of buildings, shut down Israeli airspace for almost two weeks, and caused considerable damage to the Jewish state’s economy.
• Nevertheless, Israel’s political and military leadership reportedly favor a US strike on Iran to finally bring the regime to an end. They assess that the regime’s collapse could  cripple Hezbollah, weaken Hamas and the Houthis, and, in general, reduce Iran’s ability to provide both money and weaponry to its proxies.  Also, eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile threats could free up around $30 billion for other needs.

Gaza Ceasefire: Stage Two

• In a statement last week, the UN announced that humanitarian aid to Gaza in January meets 100 percent of the minimum caloric standard, and there is sufficient stock for all of Gaza’s citizens. Many Israelis pointed out that this piece of good news was almost completely ignored by global media.
• Yesterday, the U.S. launched Phase Two of its Gaza peace plan, establishing a transitional “technocratic” Palestinian administration to replace Hamas governance and begin Gaza’s reconstruction and demilitarization.
• A dozen or so experts were invited to join a Transitional Technocratic Committee to manage day-to-day governance in Gaza. Hamas says it will “hand over control,” but in practice appears to be delegating administration while retaining real power, likely aiming to secure reconstruction funds without disarming.
• A key unresolved issue is the remains of the last hostage, Ran Gvili.
• U.S. and Israeli officials also emphasize that disarmament remains non-negotiable, with Israel positioned to act if Hamas refuses, after which the committee and a potential International Stabilization Force (ISF) would assume governance in cleared areas. For now, Israel is responsible for Hamas disarmament; the ISF may take over the task at a later date.
• The new Gaza technocratic committee is being formed, but it is not expected to enter Gaza soon, and the IDF will remain in ultimate control for the foreseeable future. Hamas may hand over civilian administration while retaining its weapons, meaning that disarmament will still have to be carried out by the IDF, which is already planning for a major military operation in Gaza City. The committee is expected to be based in the recently rebuilt “New Rafah” under Project Sunrise, with the IDF securing its borders and the ISF handling internal policing. Overall, the initiative represents a civil challenge to Hamas, but the military reality on the ground—and Israel’s control—has not fundamentally changed.
• At the end of last week, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Nickolay Mladenov, the incoming director of the Gaza Strip Board of Peace.

Israeli Public Opinion

• A recent Israel Democracy Institute public opinion poll provides new insights into Israeli attitudes toward security, government accountability, and support for Jewish communities abroad.
  • Around 76% of Jewish Israelis say it is safer for Jews to live in Israel than abroad. Among Arab Israelis, opinions are divided: 32% say Israel is safer for Arabs, 35% prefer living abroad, and 29% see both as equally safe.
  • Optimism about Israel’s national security has fallen by roughly 8 percentage points, with Jewish respondents consistently more optimistic than Arab respondents on issues including security, the economy, and democratic governance.
  • Overwhelming majorities of Jewish Israelis support government actions to assist Jewish communities abroad: 90% favor diplomatic pressure for their protection, 80% support sending official emissaries, and about 50–60% back direct involvement in security or financial aid efforts.

Other News

• An earthquake with a 4.2 magnitude was felt across Israel earlier today. The quake, centered around the Dead Sea, caused no injuries or significant damage. Millions of Israelis received emergency notifications on their phones from the Home Front Command, a message system usually used for incoming rocket and missile attacks. Amid the tensions with Iran, many citizens were temporarily alarmed when warnings were issued.
• Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji said that “so long as Hezbollah is not completely disarmed, Israel has the right to continue its attacks,” drawing sharp internal backlash from Hezbollah-aligned figures who accused him of acting as an “enemy mouthpiece” and called for political action against him.
• A new report from the Israel Democracy Institute highlights that the economic impact of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community is as significant as their lack of military service, costing the government roughly $8.8 billion annually in direct subsidies and public services—about $3,600 per non-Haredi family each year. Large families, low labor participation, and heavy reliance on welfare drive the imbalance. The average non-Orthodox Jewish household contributes a net $370 per month to the state; an Arab household costs $1,380; and an ultra-Orthodox household represents a net loss of $2,830 per month.
• Yaakov Harari, a 72‑year‑old Israeli‑Argentinian citizen who had been imprisoned in Venezuela for over a year, was released and arrived safely in Tel Aviv. Harari was held without clear legal justification in harsh conditions after being accused by Venezuelan authorities of being a mercenary. His release was part of a broader goodwill gesture by the Venezuelan government following the capture of former president Nicolas Maduro by the US. Upon his return, Harari spoke to Israeli leaders and was welcomed by family and officials.
• In an interview with The Economist, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that he aims to phase out US military aid to Israel over the next decade. Netanyahu reduced US civilian aid during his first term in the late 1990s, leaving primarily military assistance, which today amounts to about $3.8 billion annually under the current 10-year Memorandum of Understanding, which expires in 2028. Most aid is earmarked for purchases from U.S. defense contractors. (During the war, emergency military funding increased to $18 billion per year). Analysts suggest Netanyahu is trying to align with US Republican sentiment, while giving the IDF and other defense sectors a decade to adapt gradually to the loss of aid.

Further Reading

• Fall of the ayatollahs would be bittersweet poetic justice for October 7, but it’s not guaranteed
• All the Mullahs Have Left Is War on Their Own People
• Tehran doubles down on repression, believing US reluctance will delay new strikes

Update from Israel

January 8, 2026 - October 7 War, Day 825, 1 hostage body remains in captivity. 

Major Developments in Venezuela and Iran May Impact Israel

• The January 3, 2026, operation by US forces that saw Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife captured has significant implications for the local Jewish community, as well as for Israel.
• Following the attack, community members in Caracas are optimistic yet deliberately restrained, mindful of a history of politicized antisemitism and fears of scapegoating. Initial reports emphasize a “watch and wait” posture, while keeping a low profile. Reactions across the Jewish world balance relief at Maduro’s ouster with concern for those who remain in Venezuela.
• Maduro, long considered one of the most anti-Israel leaders in the world, headed a regime that consistently aligned itself with Iran and its proxies. He provided a safe haven for Islamic operatives, helped Tehran evade sanctions, and served as a hub for “narcoterror” activities. In 2018, the DEA warned that Hezbollah’s operations in Venezuela rivaled major Latin American cartels in scale and sophistication, particularly in the cocaine trade.
• Venezuela became a critical node for laundering money, trafficking weapons, and generating cash through the drug trade. This arrangement strengthened Iran’s global network and funded its proxies.
• In contrast, opposition leader María Corina Machado, who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize, has expressed strong support for Israel. She has pledged to restore diplomatic relations with the Jewish state, open an embassy in Jerusalem, and even declared that post-Maduro Venezuela would become “Israel’s closest ally in Latin America.” While she is unlikely to assume power at this stage, there is potential for dramatically improved Venezuela-Israel relations in the future.
• These moves also represent a symbolic blow to Iran’s influence in the region. For decades, Tehran invested billions of dollars to build its international network;  the collapse of its foothold in Venezuela underscores the growing fragility of the Iranian regime. The shift sends an important message to the Islamic Republic at a time when it faces mounting internal unrest and external pressure. It also offers encouragement to protesters of the Iranian government.
• The significance of this development extends beyond Latin America. Venezuela’s alignment with Iran was so deep that its vice president (and now acting president) claimed that the recent US strikes had “Zionist undertones.” Now, with Maduro gone, that alliance is unraveling. For Israel, this is yet another strategic win against Iran’s global reach and Hezbollah’s criminal empire.
• Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among the few world leaders to openly welcome the U.S. action, praising it as “bold and historic” and using the opportunity to strengthen ties with Washington.

Iran

• Mass protests in Iran have now escalated into the most serious challenge to the Islamic regime in years. What began as anger over a collapsing economy and a plummeting currency has turned into an outright anti-regime movement.
• Iran’s weakened position since October 7, 2023, including the decimation of most of its global allies, has significantly contributed to the situation. Demonstrators have  denounced the billions spent by Iran on Hezbollah, Syria, and the country’s nuclear and missile programs.
• Israel is treading carefully, avoiding overt involvement as Tehran accuses both Israel and the US of fueling the unrest. In one video, an Iranian woman has been seen shouting, “Israel—help us bring down Khamenei.” Nonetheless, earlier in the week, Netanyahu said, “We identify with the struggle of the Iranian people and their aspirations for freedom, liberty, and justice. It is very possible that we are standing at the moment when the Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands.”
• Amid fears that Iran may seek to divert attention from the protests, Netanyahu also issued a warning to Iran of “very severe consequences” if it attacks Israel, while simultaneously asking Moscow to reassure Tehran that Israel is not planning a strike. The careful messaging reflects growing fears of miscalculation in the region, where even minor signals have triggered panic. Netanyahu’s public threat signals concern that Iran might resort to a desperate move: launching an attack to rally domestic support if the regime feels close to collapse. His outreach to Russia underscores Israel’s effort to prevent escalation while signaling deterrence.
• Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who maintains close ties with the Persian Jewish community abroad, has emerged as a rallying figure for many protesters.

Gaza Hostage

• One final hostage body remains in Gaza, that of St.-Sgt.-Maj. Ran Gvili.
• Yesterday, Israel and Hamas agreed to restart the search in northern Gaza’s Zeitoun neighborhood for Gvili’s remains, with Hamas operating on both sides of the “Yellow Line” that divides the territory amid coordination from Israel. Hamas agreed to provide information on locations related to Gvili’s case. Israel has tied progress on opening the Rafah border crossing and moving forward with the US-brokered Gaza plan to the return of Gvili’s remains, insisting no political or security advancement will occur until they are recovered.
• According to many accounts, Gvili saved the lives of close to 100 people at the Nova Festival before being killed. His body was taken by Hamas and has been held in Gaza ever since.

Somaliland

• A Somaliland official today confirmed that Israel will likely establish its first-ever overseas military base in the country. Somaliland was officially recognized by the Jewish state last week. There are reports that construction of the significant IDF outpost has already begun at Somaliland’s Berbera Airport.
• Somaliand, a breakaway region of Somalia that has operated as a stable, democratic, and relatively prosperous entity for decades, has also enjoyed peaceful transfers of power following elections. Israel remains the first and only country to recognize Somaliland, although there is speculation that other countries, including the United States, could follow Israel’s lead.
• Israel’s decision to formally recognize Somaliland sparked celebrations in the capital Hargeisa and sharp condemnation from Somalia and the African Union.
• Earlier this week, in a landmark event, Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar visited Somaliland and met with its leaders.
• The move gives Israel a foothold opposite Yemen, sending a clear message to the Iran-backed Houthis and strengthening its position along a strategic maritime corridor.
• Somaliland has signaled interest in joining the Abraham Accords, which could lead to formal diplomatic ties and even an embassy in Jerusalem. Its stability makes it an attractive partner in the Horn of Africa, a region where global powers are competing for influence.
• Rumors of Gazan refugee resettlement have been denied by both sides.
• Recognition of Somaliland underscores Israel’s intent to expand its diplomatic and security reach in a volatile but strategically vital area. Some Israeli media commentators have highlighted the moves as confirmation of Israel’s regional super-power status.

Fighting

• Earlier today, a projectile was fired from the area of Gaza City toward Israel. The rocket fell short of its target and landed inside the Gaza Strip near a hospital. Shortly afterwards, the IDF struck the launch site.
• Israel’s Ministry of Defense and the IDF have completed distributing thousands of advanced Arad rifles to civilian rapid response teams nationwide. A $31 million deal with Israel Weapon Industries includes a decade of maintenance support and Meprolight M5 optical sights from IDF stocks. This initiative standardizes equipment for local defense teams, reflects lessons learned from the October 7 war, and expands Israel’s domestic defense production base.
• The Lebanese army announced that it has gained full operational control south of the Litani River (outside areas held by the IDF) and is in an “advanced stage” of consolidating weapons there, emphasizing that it intends to be the sole force responsible for security in Lebanon and that it seeks to prevent armed groups from using the area as a staging ground for attacks. The announcement did not specifically mention Hezbollah; despite claims of control, Israeli intelligence has previously said the army struggles to exert power over the group.
• Israel continues to strike Hezbollah targets in the region, claiming that the terror group is in violation of the ceasefire agreements reached.
• The US appears to be backing the Israeli strikes, and according to numerous commentators, is even encouraging Israel to launch additional and more aggressive strikes.

Other News

• Israel raised $9 billion this week in a new bond issue at the lowest spread since before the war, with demand far outstripping supply. Orders totaled about $36 billion from roughly 300 investors across more than 30 countries. Analysts attribute the surge to perceptions that Israeli bonds were undervalued and renewed confidence in fiscal stability despite higher defense spending. The strong showing contrasts sharply with 2024, when Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit rating and S&P shifted its outlook to negative; S&P has since upgraded to neutral, while the others have yet to follow. Meanwhile, the TA-125 index has climbed more than 140 percent since October 2023, underscoring investor optimism even after two years of war.
• Crime in Israel’s Arab sector continues to mount. Three men were shot dead early Wednesday at a construction site in Shfaram, in what police suspect was a criminal hit tied to an ongoing feud between local Arab crime groups. The victims—two from Bir al-Maksur and one from Shfaram—were pronounced dead at the scene. The killings bring the Arab sector’s murder toll to eight since the start of 2026, compared to just one in the same period last year. Police believe the attack is part of a cycle of retaliatory violence between rival organizations, as criticism mounts over law enforcement’s inability to stem the bloodshed.
• An anti-draft protest by Haredim in Jerusalem ended in tragedy on Tuesday, when a bus struck and killed a young demonstrator after being surrounded by rioters. This marks the second fatal incident linked to protests against the proposed Haredi draft law, which has become one of Israel’s most divisive issues ahead of elections. The protest saw thousands of demonstrators block major intersections in the capital and clash with police.
• On Tuesday, Israel and Syria completed two days of US-mediated talks in Paris, marking the most significant progress since negotiations resumed after Assad’s fall. The sides agreed to accelerate discussions and establish a “joint fusion mechanism” — a dedicated communication cell for intelligence sharing, military de-escalation, and diplomatic coordination under US supervision. Both countries reaffirmed commitments to security and stability, with Israel emphasizing protection for the Druze minority and Syria insisting on sovereignty.
• According to Israeli media reports, Israel, Syria, and the US are also discussing an  economic cooperation plan alongside the security talks. The proposal envisions a significant joint economic zone in the demilitarized strip, featuring energy projects, pharmaceutical plants, data centers, and even a ski resort. According to reports, the plan could boost Syria’s GDP by 20%, add 15,000 jobs, and expand power capacity by 800 megawatts, while offering Israel reduced defense costs and a new economic corridor. Though peace isn’t a formal condition, the initiative–if it goes through–would signal a dramatic shift from military confrontation to economic integration.

Further Reading

• What’s New About This Wave of Protests in Iran
• JPPI Podcast: Israel’s Unresolved Wars and Uncertain Future
• Two Years into the War: Israel’s Strategic Reckoning
• On Dreams, Awakenings, and Israel's Next Chapter
• A Security Arrangement with Syria in a Space of Uncertainty and Perceptual Gap